Iraq isn't another Vietnam...yet


Facing corruption head on
Arnold Kling outdoes himself with this article at Tech Central Station.

The opposition to the Iraqi government, the so-called insurgency, strikes me as inferior to the opposition in Vietnam. The Viet Cong was a military force. It fought battles, held territory, and was often in control of the tempo of operations. The terrorists in Iraq can do none of this. Their tactics reflect weakness and desperation. They fail more often than not, and our own strategy and tactics are far more effective than those used at the height of the Vietnam War. If the casualty rate and other military indicators that we find today in Iraq had been at similar levels in Vietnam in 1967, President Lyndon Johnson would have been re-elected in a landslide as the successful architect of a victorious war.
 
Nonetheless, there is a valid parallel with Vietnam that is sobering. Ultimately, the United States depends on the local government for success.
 
From 1963, when President Kennedy increased our involvement by sending advisers, to 1975, when we evacuated in disgrace, the attitude of most Vietnamese people toward the government of South Vietnam ranged from indifference to hatred. Had South Vietnam been able to escape the corruption trap during this period, my guess is that the Communists would have been defeated. On the other hand, with South Vietnam caught in the corruption trap, there was almost no way for the United States to achieve durable success.
 
My guess is that, in many cases, the fastest way to get something done in Iraq is to bribe an important local tribal leader. Americans, in a hurry and looking for "can-do" help, will be very tempted to play this game. However, the long-run consequences may be adverse. Bribing an official to get something done is like paying ransom to a kidnapper -- what looks like a good short-term fix is a disastrous long-term policy.

I think he has hit the nail on the head. So far, I am very encouraged by what I see happening.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Wed - December 7, 2005 at 05:38 AM  Tag


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