China's not ready


But the people are
I spend a time looking at indirect effects and news stories outside the mainstream. It's how I try to keep tabs on what's happening in Iran.

And then there's China.

There are some amazing things happening in China, but it's not following the roadmap that the think tanks and foreign policy experts think that it should. Here's one of the better articles that looks below the surface.

But the analysts and the conventional wisdom they peddle are wrong. China’s economic model, which allowed the Chinese to take maximum advantage of boom times, is particularly ill suited to current global conditions. About 38 percent of the country’s economy is attributable to exports—some say the figure is higher—but global demand at this moment is slumping. (Last March, the normally optimistic World Bank said the global economy would contract in 2009 for the first time since World War II and that global trade would decline the most it had in eighty years.) Globalization, which looked like an inevitable trend in early 2008, is now obviously going into reverse as economies are delinking from each other. So China is now held hostage to events far beyond the country’s borders.

As we saw in the Great Depression, the exporting countries had the hardest time adjusting to deteriorating economic conditions. That is proving to be the case now as well. China’s exports fell 16.0 percent last year, and forecasts show a weak export sector for at least the remainder of this year. As a result of declining exports and other factors, Beijing presided over the world’s fastest slowing economy. China’s economy, in fact, grew by about 15 percent in 2007, but fell to negative growth at the end of 2008.

Let's not forget the internal pressures. The Chinese people are demanding things that the Chinese government can't control.

The internet is freedom's last best hope. And where porn goes, business follows. The more that happens outside official channels, the better the Chinese economy will be.

Our American Imperious Leader should take note. He won't, but he should.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Mon - April 26, 2010 at 12:44 PM  Tag


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