Implications in the Middle East - updated


Looking below the surface for the solutions
One of the better analysis of the Middle East situation was written by E.J. Dionne, Jr. for the Washington Post. Here's the good stuff.

If there is any good news here, it is that parts of the Arab world -- particularly Sunni governments alarmed by Iran's use of Shiism in its reach for hegemony -- have criticized Hezbollah's provocations. But what will those reproofs mean on the ground? Olmert himself took a step toward a solution yesterday by telling the Israeli Knesset that the fighting could stop if two kidnapped Israeli soldiers were released and the Lebanese army took control of the country's southern border.

The most frightening aspect of this war is that the logic for escalation is far stronger than the logic for de-escalation. If Hezbollah's power is not severely degraded, Israel will remain vulnerable. But if Olmert wants to avoid Sharon's 1982 mistake of a large-scale occupation of Lebanon, what options does he have?

As long as Hezbollah continues to receive support from its Iranian patrons and its Syrian partners, it will be able to re-create itself, building on long-standing Shiite grievances. Absent such support, the movement would wither militarily. That argues for settling things once and for all with Iran and Syria -- which means wholesale war in the Middle East at a time when roughly 130,000 American troops are in Iraq.

This would be a calamity, which is why alarmism is the highest form of realism in this case. The "international community" cannot engage in its usual dithering. When British Prime Minister Tony Blair called yesterday for an international force to disarm Hezbollah, it seemed an impossibly impractical demand. But if there's something more practical than avoiding a full-scale regional war, I don't know what it is. And in this case, it will take a genuine international effort, not a narrow "coalition of the willing."

Look for the root causes here. It's not the "Zionist entity." That is a red herring so that certain Muslims can keep a perpetual group of violent "victims" to trot out every time they need an excuse for an atrocity.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Tue - July 18, 2006 at 04:35 AM  Tag


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